Chances to Have a Child in a Late Fertility Society

Eva Beaujouan , University of Vienna (Wittgenstein Centre)
Katja Köppen , Universität Rostock

An increasing number of women and men want to have children in their 30s and 40s. However, at these ages, biological ability to have a child starts decreasing. A clear and up to date assessment of the chances of women and men to actually have a child depending on the age at which they start trying has become necessary in order to better understand the challenges they face when postponing childbearing. Theoretical and empirical curves of definitive infertility by age do exist, but they are based on historical data and possibly need an update. In addition, life circumstances can counteract the action towards having a child, and we can assess this simultaneously with biological chances to actually have a child in competing risk survival models. We use the German Family Panel pairfam, an annual survey starting in 2008/2009. Our main goal is to quantify definitive infertility by age for women and men at the population level using longitudinal individual-level data.

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 Presented in Session 77. Timing of Fertility