Spatial and Temporal Variations of Minimum Mortality Temperatures in Spain since 1979

Dariya Ordanovich , IEGD-CCHS Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)
Diego Ramiro Fariñas , Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)
Aurelio Tobias, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research

The alarming rates of the global warming raise a substantial concern for adverse health outcomes to aggravate in response to the amplified exposure to continuously changing and increasingly extreme environments. Changes in the optimum, o minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) are often used to evaluate the process of adaptation to increasing temperatures in populations that vary in vulnerability and resilience capacity. This paper aims to explore variations in the MMT in space and time using individual deaths microdata files during 4 decades from 1979 to 2018 in Spain at various levels of geographic disaggregation. The exposure-response and lag-response associations with temperature and heat index were modelled using a distributed lag non-linear models. The attributable fractions (AF) of mortality were estimated using backward and forward perspectives. The cumulative exposure-response associations were explored at the national, macro (municipalities of 52 provincial capitals) and micro (rural and urban municipalities in each Spanish province) levels. The overall excess risk of dying when temperature exceeds the 99thpercentile was estimated at 25%. Relative risks corresponding to the exposure to hottest temperatures are the highest for elderly (65+), especially for woman on the first and second day after exposure. The effects of exposure of elderly to colder temperatures do not manifest until the second day after exposure. The AF due to heat and extreme heat of females of advanced age are 2 times higher than those of males. Lastly, the evolution of the MMT during the observation window revealed great spatial heterogeneity and variations in the trend direction.

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 Presented in Session P74. Environmental Impacts on Health