The Penalized Likelihood for Detecting Mortality Deceleration

Silvio Cabral Patricio , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark

This paper offers methodological advances that contribute to an ongoing scientific debate about aging patterns, especially detecting the mortality deceleration through heterogeneity. We address how to detect a deceleration in mortality using the gamma-Gompertz model and life tables. We propose penalizing the likelihood function, using its maximization to solve this problem. We compare the results with the widely used maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). The results are promising for parameter estimation, especially for the detection of heterogeneity.

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 Presented in Session 25. Advancements in Mortality analysis