Fertility Roller Coaster in Kazakhstan after the Collapse of the Soviet Union

Maxim Kan , Stockholm University

The irreversibility of demographic transition is well accepted by many researchers. But fertility rates have reversed to levels not seen since several decades ago in Kazakhstan. A pro-cyclical relationship with fertility has been demonstrated already in the country. The current study employs UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data (2006, 2011, 2015) and event-history modelling to analyse parity progressions 1 to 4 and assess whether recent increases in fertility rates are sustained and universal. The results suggest a sustained fertility increase that is not merely associated with the recuperation of delayed first births, but a genuine increase across all birth orders. This pattern was evident for both main ethnicities and across educational groups. The gradual increase of higher-order births, especially among ethnic Kazakhs, indicates either a reversed transition or the fact that the previous decline in the 1990s was not a part of the demographic transition but rather part of a pro-cyclical trend due to economic crisis.

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 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe