Trends in Mid-life Mortality in England and Wales: Is the US an Anomaly?

Jennifer B. Dowd , Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford
Andrea M Tilstra , University of Oxford

Even prior to COVID-19, stagnation of U.S. life expectancy and increased mortality in certain groups raised alarm bells among demographers and policy-makers. So called “deaths of despair” due to suicide, drug overdose, and alcohol have received close attention, with the argument being that declines in economic and social opportunities for certain groups are driving these trends. There is evidence that life expectancy may be stalling in the UK as well, raising the question of whether these mortality dynamics could reflect a more general rather than US-specific phenomenon. The increases in mortality in the US have been concentrated in less educated middle-aged Whites. Research on mortality stagnation in the U.K has focused on those over aged 65, with no explicit examination of trends in mid-life. This paper examines mortality trends in England/Wales for the first time directly comparing the trends by age and cause of death to the high-profile trends in the U.S., particularly among those in mid-life (ages 35-64). Using vital statistics, we disaggregate mortality trends by cause of death and age subgroups to compare how trends in the contribution of “despair”-related causes (drug and alcohol related, suicide) vs. metabolic conditions by age, especially at middle-ages where mortality increases have been most noticeable in the U.S. Using individual-level data from the ONS longitudinal study, we also examine trends by education and race/ethnicity for more direct comparison to the subgroups in the U.S. that have seen the most deterioration in mortality trends.

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 Presented in Session 72. International perspectives on mortality