Emigration of Academic Scientists Falls with Development in Low-Income Countries but Rises in Richer Ones

Emilio Zagheni , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Tom Theile, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Aliakbar Akbaritabar , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Maciej J. Danko , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Ebru Sanlitürk , Max Planck Institute for demographic Research

Does economic development increase or reduce emigration of academic scientists? The answer to this question holds the key to understanding how the global competition for talent a?ects countries at di?erent levels of development. Leveraging bibliometric data indexed by Scopus for over 36 million journal articles and reviews published from 1996, we developed a novel and global database of scholarly migration (1998-2017), where migration events are inferred from changes in authors’ institutional a?liations over time. Statistical analysis using Generalized Additive Mixed Models reveals that emigration rates initially decrease as GDP per capita increases. Then the trend reverses as countries get richer. This U-shaped pattern is the opposite of what has been found for overall, population-level, emigration rates, and calls for new theoretical frameworks to understand the heterogeneous responses of migration to development. As we develop our models further, we aim at identifying the main determinants and consequences of observed dynamics.

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 Presented in Session 39. Migrant Populations