Fertility Postponement, Economic Uncertainty, and the Increasing Income Prerequisites of Parenthood

Daniël van Wijk , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Francesco Billari, Bocconi University

Nearly all developed countries have witnessed an increase in the age at first birth in the first two decades of the 21st century. A widespread explanation for this postponement of parenthood focuses on the experience of economic uncertainty by young adults. According to this perspective, perceptions of uncertainty about future economic conditions have increased in recent years, and this rising uncertainty significantly contributes to young adults’ postponement of life-long commitments to family life. An alternative explanation focuses on the increasing prerequisites of parenthood, in terms of current and accumulated income. This latter perspective hypothesizes that the economic resources that are perceived to be required to become a parent have increased over time. However, the available empirical evidence for these hypotheses is scarce and fragmented, as most individual-level studies include only objective indicators of economic conditions, do not study changes over time, and are limited to only one country. To address these issues, we employ data from the “Comparative Panel File”, which provides individual-level panel data on fertility, perceptions of economic uncertainty, and income over the past twenty years in a diverse set of countries (Australia, Germany, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States). This allows us to examine patterns and trends in economic uncertainty, incomes, and their relationship to fertility. Overall, this approach will demonstrate to what extent, and in which contexts, rising economic uncertainty and increasing income prerequisites have contributed to the postponement of fertility.

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 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe