The Effects of Social Media Connections on the Indian Fertility Transition: Do Facebook Friends’ Fertility Patterns Influence Fertility Choices?

Lamar Crombach , KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle der ETH Zurich
Jet Wildeman, Radboud University Nijmegen
Sandor Schrijner, Radboud University Nijmegen
Jeroen Smits , Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen

India’s fertility rate is in rapid decline. Moreover, India’s population is increasingly using social media platforms. We explore the effect of observed fertility patterns through social media connections on fertility patterns at the level of Indian districts. Using a DeGroot-type social learning model, we predict that social media usage will (a) decrease fertility in districts that have a crude birth rate that is larger than the crude birth rate observed through social media, (b) have no effect on districts that have a crude birth rate that is similar to the crude birth rate observed through social media, and (c) increase fertility in districts that have a crude birth rate that is lower than the crude birth rate observed through social media. We will use data on the crude birth rate at the level of Indian districts and data on Facebook connectedness to test our hypotheses.

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 Presented in Session 13. Novel Perspectives in Fertility Research