What Is behind the Geographic Distribution of the Elderly? Spatial Patterns of the Aging Population in Spain

Joaquín Osorio Arjona , IEGD-CCHS Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)
J. Sebastian Ruiz-Santacruz , Spatial National Research Council - Center for Human and Social Sciences
Carlos Muñoz Díaz, IEGD-CCHS Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)
Clara Bueno López, IEGD-CCHS Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)
Diego Ramiro Fariñas , Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)

The aging of Spain’s population is the result of persistent declines in fertility rates, fewer children in number, and a sustained increase in life expectancy and survival to older ages that leads to more elderly people (age 65 years and older) in the population. This document aims to assess the strength of the relationship between the spatial distribution of aged population and the demographic dynamics that act in parallel, given that it is a relatively unexplored research field in Spain (Rogero-García, 2009). We applied Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) models to a battery of factors underlying social dynamics and compared their capacity to explain the spatial disparities observed. Variables of choice include the relative capacity of residential care facilities and healthcare centers as a representation of specialized elderly resources available, gross income as the socioeconomic factor, temperature, life expectancy at older ages, local fertility rates, interprovincial migratory balance and the proportion of foreign population in the area. Results show spatially correlated concentrations of aged populations on the coasts and in center of the country, with the GWR showing the best model fit to data in the southern coast.

See paper

 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe