TFR Trends since 2000: a Decade up, a Decade down – but Why?

Marion Burkimsher , University of Lausanne

This study examines trends in the TFR of nine countries in Western Europe plus Canada and the USA using data in the Human Fertility Database. On average, the TFR rose by 0.2 children per woman during the first decade of the new millennium; this was followed by a fall of 0.26, although there was significant variation between the countries studied. Changes in first birth fertility rates (the TFR1) have the biggest impact on overall TFR so these were the analysed specifically. The rise in the TFR1 up to the peak around 2008-2010 was caused by a rise in ‘late’ (post-modal-age) fertility in parallel with a stabilisation of ‘early’ (pre-modal age) fertility. By contrast, the subsequent fall in TFR1 was caused by a sharp fall in ‘early’ fertility together with a stabilisation in ‘late’ fertility. Peak first birth age-specific fertility rates (i.e. the ASFR1at the modal age) rose slightly in the first half of the period but have been falling in recent years reflecting a decline in ‘intensity’ of entry into motherhood. The countries studied all have a mean age at childbearing over 29 and for Swiss women their modal age at first birth is now 32. Countries in Europe with a younger profile for childbearing have not seen a decline in their TFR over the past decade. Hence the question remains as to whether the increasingly late age at entry into motherhood is now a limiting factor on the TFR.

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 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe