Policy Responses to COVID-19 in the European Union: Impacts of School Closure on SARS-CoV-2 Transmissions Across Urban and Rural Areas

Daniela Ghio , University of Catania
Massimiliano Bratti, Università degli Studi di Milano
Simona Bignami , Université de Montréal
Nikolaos Stilianakis, Joint Research Centre European Commission

There is a consensus that the decision to close schools should be considered as a last resort to control SARS_CoV-2 infection transmissions. Yet, the effectiveness of this policy measure has been mainly evaluated at national/regional levels, underestimating the role played by local population structures, density and proximity to urban centers for the spread of COVID-19 disease. Indeed, the place of residence is recognized as a determinant of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions: crowded living conditions in urban areas may be important factors, whereas rural areas are likely to be affected by remoteness from healthcare services. This paper explores how rural-urban spatial patterns have interacted with local school closures to limit the spread of COVID-19 disease. We exploit anonymised individual-level data of COVID-19 tested positive cases collected by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control from September-2020 to March-2021 to investigate intergenerational dynamics across European territories. We apply an event study model as generalized extension of the difference-in-differences method to include time variant controls of local COVID-19 school management. Findings confirm the existence of rural-urban differentials in SARS-CoV-2 transmissions across children and mothers’ cohorts that have been associated with the adoption of school restrictions. The paper contributes to the setting of spatial demographic patterns as determinants for the monitoring and governance of school-related secondary infection transmissions. Since vaccines remain unavailable for children under 12-years of age, the local assessment of school closure effects occurred during the past pandemic waves is crucial to shape appropriate policy education recovery planning to prevent potential epidemic resurgences.

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 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe