The Long-Term Effect of the Great Recession on European Mortality

Giambattista Salinari , Università degli Studi di Sassari
Federico Benassi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

Some European countries, such as Greece and Spain, were severely hit by the 2008 economic crisis whereas others, such as Germany, were practically spared by it. This divergence allowed us to implement a difference in differences research design which offered the possibility to observe the long lasting effects produced by the crisis on European life expectancy. Our analysis - based on Eurostat data from 2001 to 2019 - shows that life expectancy increased faster, after the onset of the crisis, in those countries where the rise in unemployment was more intense. Furthermore, our results show that this gain in life expectancy persisted, and sometimes further increased, until 2019 when most macro-economic variables had returned to their pre-crisis values. Previous research has identified that mortality behave procyclically in developed countries: when the economy slows down mortality decreases and vice versa. Our findings show, by contrast, that life expectancy behave asymmetrically: it responded to an increase but not to a decrease in unemployment. This call for a reconsideration of the causal mechanisms linking together the economic cycle and mortality in developed countries.

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 Presented in Session 72. International perspectives on mortality