Estimating Age Patterns of Net-Migration across European Municipalities

Daniela Ghio , European Commission
Claudio Bosco, Joint Research Centre European Commission
Fabrizio Natale, European Commission Joint Research Centre
Jan Loeschner, Joint Research Centre European Commission
Anne Goujon , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Migration plays a key role in the development of local areas challenged by demographic change and ageing. However, the lack of age-specific data and long time series limit the assessment of migration impacts, even in the European Union (EU) with a common data collection system since 2007. The paper explores patterns in population and net-migration age structures in more than 100,000 EU Local Administrative Units (LAUs) over the period 2011-2019. We harmonize EU population datasets using (2011) population censuses and the latest (indicatively 2019) available statistics provided by National Statistical Institutes. Exploiting these datasets, we estimate age-specific net migration by adapting census survival methods to handle the large EU coverage and variations in data collections coming from different national sources. Specifically, we apply life-table models to assess changes by cohort and derive age-specific net-migration rates applying a residual method. The estimated age-specific net migration rates are validated using pooled official statistics available for small samples of LAUs with limited territorial and temporal coverages. The resulting net migration rates by age at finer geographical resolution could contribute to enhancing research on the determinants of territorial disparities across the EU during intercensal periods. Covering the whole EU territories, the new datasets at LAU level complement the figures available from the 2011 censuses, anticipating the release of gridded census statistics foreseen for 2023.

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 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe