Against the Grain: Sweden, International Migration, and the Depression of National Life Expectancy Levels

Matthew Wallace , Stockholm University
Sven Drefahl , Stockholm University

Background: international immigrants and their descendants constitute growing shares of the populations of rich host countries and are becoming a sizeable part of the older populations of these countries. Together, these trends suggest growing potential of migrant-origin populations to influence national mortality. Previous research has found – in line with the “migrant mortality advantage” phenomenon – that international migrants increasingly enhance national life expectancy over time in the United States, Australia, Denmark, Finland, and Norway. However, one country goes firmly “against the grain”, with international migrants instead depressing national life expectancy – Sweden. The reasons behind this divergence are – as yet – unknown. Aim: to quantify and decompose the impact of international immigrants and their descendants on national life expectancy in Sweden by age and origins. Methods: we use the total population, death, inter-generational, and migration registers of Sweden to generate life expectancy levels from 1990 to 2019. We decompose differences by age and origins using the Arriaga method. Preliminary results: international migrants initially depress national life expectancy; the size of the effect decreases over time. Other Nordic Migrants always have lower life expectancy than ancestral Swedes do; non-European migrants always have higher life expectancy. The descendants of migrants also depress national life expectancy. Combined, male migrants and their descendants depress national life expectancy in Sweden in the 1990s and early 2000s by one fifth to one quarter of a year. Next steps: to decompose differences in life expectancy levels to understand the contribution of specific ages and migrant-origins.

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 Presented in Session P1. Postercafe