Estimating excess deaths with the later/earlier method: An application to French and Spanish regions during the COVID-19 pandemic

Ainhoa Elena Leger , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark
Silvia Rizzi , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark

During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death has been widely used to measure the overall impact of the pandemic on mortality. Various approaches, from the simple five-year average method to more sophisticated modelling, allow for excess death estimates. In this study, we aim at investigating the validity of a new method – the later/earlier method – developed for forecasting the number of deaths one would expect in the absence of a major shock. The method is applied to estimate excess mortality during the first COVID-19 wave in France and Spain stratified by demographic characteristics such as age, sex, and region. Although a similar number of confirmed covid deaths was reported in the two countries, Spain recorded a higher excess death risk than France. The results are informative about differences in vulnerability to COVID-19 for population subgroups and for spatial areas: elderly aged between 75 and 85 being mostly hit; Île-de-France in France and Comunidad de Madrid in Spain registering the most elevated excess mortality. The later/earlier method is simple and requires fewer assumptions than other forecasting methods. Furthermore, compared to the intuitive five-year average method, it proves to be less biased and more accurate.

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 Presented in Session 78. Improvements in forecasting methods