Exploring the future migration to Europe by means of a factorial survey experiment

Michaël Boissonneault , Montreal University
Rafael Costa , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)-KNAW/University of Groningen
Helga A. G. De Valk , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI-KNAW), University of Groningen

Scenario planning was developed following World War II as a tool that allows to qualitatively assess, by means of narratives, how different forces might develop in the future to lead to different scenarios regarding a phenomenon of interest. During the last decade, scenario planning has been increasingly used to help policy makers reflect on how key drivers of migration might develop and interact to lead to different migration outcomes between two countries or regions. However, few attempts have been made at estimating what the resulting narratives might imply in terms of migrant numbers. Here we use a factorial survey experiment to elicit expert judgment about the potential consequences of various narratives for migration flows between Europe and the Middle East & North Africa to the horizon 2030. The use of a factorial survey entails the use of vignettes, which allow more complete depictions of future hypothetical situations than single-item questions, leading to more realistic and nuanced expert assessment. Furthermore, by varying systematically the values of the items making up the vignettes, we are in state of identifying the factors that cause variation in the assessments. Results from this survey will allow to identify which of the demographic, cultural, political, and economic factors that, by themselves or combined, have the potential to disrupt migration flows between Europe and the Middle East & North Africa. Our contribution helps bridging the gap between qualitative and quantitative approaches at describing the future of migration and constitutes an enhanced tool for guiding European migration policy.

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 Presented in Session 66. Drivers of international migration